With thousands of variables at play, as well as a seemingly fluid deadline which has recently been extended to the 31st October, accurately predicting the future impact of Brexit on UK house prices is challenging. On this page, we’ve collected and aggregated predictions from property experts to produce a ‘poll of polls’ or – more simply – an average of what most experts think will happen to house prices in 2019. Each month we then match these predictions with the latest available house price data, gaining an early insight into the health of the UK housing market.
Current Housing Market
Subdued
Average UK House Price*
£230,907
Growth In 2019*
0%
Has Brexit already had an impact on house prices?
Looking at the graph below, we can see that house price growth remained strong during 2018, with a growth rate of 2.6%. However, it’s important to remember that there are multiple factors other than Brexit that can affect house prices – including supply, demand, inflation and interest rates.
How much has my house price increased by this year?
Based on the most up-to-data we have, you can use our calculator below to work out how much your house might have increased in value since December 2018.
What happens to house prices if there’s ‘no-deal’?
According to the Bank of England’s governor, Mark Carney, house prices could fall as much as 33% over the space of three years if a no-deal Brexit comes to pass. These predictions came off the back of the Bank of England’s stress tests, where they also warned about potential falls in the pound, rises in inflation, and the possibility of large numbers of homeowners being left in negative equity.
However, it’s important to note that this is an absolute worse case scenario which was deliberately modelled by the Bank to ensure that the financial system is prepared for any eventuality. According to the BBC, “the Governor believes that a “no deal” scenario would be bad for the economy. But not as bad as the headlines … which are based on a doomsday scenario that is not actually forecast to happen.”
Who are the industry experts?
Paula Higgins
HomeOwners Alliance
Paula Higgins is the CEO of HomeOwners Alliance, and is quoted as saying “The outlook for 2019 depends largely on how quickly certainty on Brexit and the economy can be provided. We expect to see slow house price growth in 2019, but still growing, in the region of 1.0%.”
Henry Pryor
Property Commentator
Henry Pryor has been in the property industry since 1983 and is often cited by the BBC. You can follow him on Twitter here. His prediction of a 5% fall was quoted by the BBC in January 2019.
Russell Galley
Halifax
Russell Galley is the Managing Director of Halifax. His prediction of a 2% to 4% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2019.
Richard Donnell
Hometrack
Richard Donnell is the Director of Research at Hometrack. His prediction of a 3% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2019.
Andrew Montlake
Coreco
Andrew Montlake is the Brand Director and Press Spokesperson at Coreco, a mortgage brokerage. His prediction of a 1% to 2% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2019.
Andrew Burrell
Capital Economics
Andrew Burrell is the Chief Property Economist at Capital Economics. His prediction of a 1% rise was quoted by the BBC in January 2019.
Simon Rubinsohn
RICS
Simon Rubinsohn is the Chief Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (also known as RICS). His prediction of no change was quoted by the BBC in January 2019.
Jackson-Stops
Estate Agent
According to The Telegraph, the estate agency Jackson-Stops are expecting an increase of 1% in property values during 2019.
Strutt & Parker
Estate Agent
According to The Telegraph, the estate agency Strutt & Parker are expecting an increase of 2.5% in property values during 2019.
Rightmove
Property Portal
Rightmove is the largest property portal in the UK. Its prediction of ‘no change’ was reported in a BBC News article from January 2019.
How have we plotted the house price predictions?
We have used Land Registry data to provide an average house price for December 2018. From there, we have divided out the percentage increase or decrease from each of the individual property experts over a period of twelve months, and plotted this as a linear extrapolation over each month of 2019.
For ranged predictions (e.g. a 2% to 4% rise), we have taken the middle point of the prediction and plotted this number onto the graph.
What does “Land Registry (Estimated)” mean?
Land Registry house price data is one of the most authoritative sources of its type, with its headline figures using a geometric mean of UK house prices. Unfortunately it tends to be released around 1 to 2 months behind the Nationwide and Halifax’s own House Price Indexes, therefore creating a lag between the current state of the housing market and the data it provides. With this in mind, Land Registry (Estimated) is Yopa’s estimation of what the next Land Registry average house price figure will be.
It is created by taking an average of Nationwide and Halifax’s percentage increase or decrease for the following month, and then using this figure as a multiplier on Land Registry’s data from the previous month.
* For the purposes of this webpage, the definition of both Current Average UK House Price and Actual Average UK House Price is this Land Registry (Estimated) figure.
